The Real Gender War?

I am woman, hear me roar
In numbers too big to ignore
And I know too much to go back an' pretend
'Cause I've heard it all before
And I've been down there on the floor
No one's ever gonna keep me down again

Oh yes, I am wise
But it's wisdom born of pain
Yes, I've paid the price
But look how much I gained
If I have to, I can do anything
I am strong
(Strong)
I am invincible
(Invincible)
I am woman

Ray Burton and Helen Reddy 

May 1972

 OK readers please be forewarned this may be the last group of posts for Observations. Why? Because I am not sure that after this and the next few posts I will have many readers left.

Last week I "broached" the subject of gender differences, gently, in what one reader described to me was a very "PC" version. I confess it was intended to be lighthearted and fun, mainly because this topic outlines my concern for the long term prospects for our society.

For those of you who stick around for the  next several posts you may end up thinking I am an old "fuddy duddy" or worse may feel hurt by a few things I say.  However, I believe that some of the biggest and most frightening social changes in western society have occurred over the last several decades, out in the open, but ignored or, worse abetted by the most of the political and media elites in our society.  It will touch on issues I have pondered over since working with the United Way in Vermont.  It is a topic I have wanted to broach since I started my Blog but I have always feared any discussion may divide my readers into hostile camps, something I have grappled with as well.

So why do this now?  Basically because of some recent events.

When Donald Trump was elected President I actual had some hope that the shock would jolt some enlightenment into the  "Elites" as to what was actually happening in our society.  I foolishly hoped they might recognize that some of these social changes have been very bad for our society.  Maybe they would recognize that a lot of this major social reengineering had devastated swaths of our population who not only feel hopeless but persecuted.  In short we missed some long term implications of the sexual revolution.

What implication? Very specifically we now have had two and even three generations of males (40%? or more and growing in numbers) being raised with no gender reference or guidance, in homes headed by females.  A cycle that has now gotten so deep that it has its own self perpetuating "feedback" loop where perhaps half of all women in our country actually see the prospects of having a full time male spouse when they decide to bear children  just "ain't worth it". Even the Chinese cultural revolution did not yield such outcomes.

Unfortunately I was wrong.  Instead of grappling with how and why Bernie almost won the Democratic nomination, instead of self introspection on how Donald Trump attracted so many voters (to the media elites surprise) we got more of the same. Evidenced by Pink hatted women (and men) leading a charge of "not my president" and blaming sexism or worse, for their candidates loss.  In reality the loss was probably the fault of the candidate and their party  who called the huge number of males who have suffered the last 30 years, deplorables.  In fact still claiming they are the reason women have "still" not achieved "equality".  For these Millions  of men the idea that women have not achieved "equality" is a lie.  To "blame them" for continuing inequality is most disturbing. Throw in the "#metoo" movement now erupting and you might get the impression the cultural cleansing of men is just getting going!

I also had hoped those who call themselves "Fiscal Conservatives but Socially Liberals " might see the light that pure economic solutions will likely fail in the long run as because this is really a social issue. That does not seem to be happening either.

 I am convinced (and thus the "passion") that demographically we are already starting to face some very grim scenarios.

Since 9/11 many have speculated (correctly in my mind) about what do many young middle eastern men do when they face no economic prospects, little long term hope and lot's of time on their hands?  Well many embrace a radical religious fundamentalism,  become more sexist and blow up buildings and people.

So I speculate what millions of future young men that live in their parent(s?) basements with lowering economic prospects and no sense of what it means to be a "Man".  They lack male role models , and they lack a  sense that "gender matters" to the nuclear family.  In my mind they just may start finding some male bonding in Antifa or Aryan Nation.  They might self medicate with opioids and are already often mind medicated by schools and a beleaguard parent(s) for listlessness or ADD.  Evidence might even suggest they may become so lost that they shoot up schools.  Yes that last statement is my own thought but worthy of consideration when you consider some of the emerging trends in Opioid deaths and the overall skyrocketing of male mortality rates the last two or three years in the US(unthinkable just a few short years ago)   I should think this should be a signal of their malaise to all of us.

Ok so where can I go from here?  I guess a few more posts?

So my next post will give you thoughts on the decline of marriage, male abdication from child rearing and our very definition of acceptable child rearing.

After that I hope to touch on (in no particular order)

1. Traditional "Male" and "Female" Bonding and the blurring of these distinctions over the last few decades (My old college friends may even get some humor from that one).

2. Physical and emotional gender differences.

3.  Women and Men Competing in the Workplace.

4.  What hope is there of changing things so we all ( male and female) have better prospects and outcomes?

5.  Finally I hope at least some of you can provide me with some of your own thoughts as to why and how my thinking is flawed or off base!  I seriously invite you to do so.


Alright this post is already to long I still need to provide you with the basis for the claims I make above. To do so  I go back to what for me was a most enlightening study, written by a couple of MIT researchers a few years ago.  This research was commissioned by a group called "The Third Way" a group which, ironically, Bill Clinton in his "Centrist Democrat" days was once a supporter.

Alert- I mentioned this paper in a previous blog post and there will be a prize if one of you can tell me how and why I referenced it!
,
 While the researchers (see their profile below ) and I do not necessarily agree on all the "hypothesized" reasons and outcomes that are "good and bad ",(For example, I am not so sure that there claim these shifts have not had a negative impact on women are entirely true.  Life is not all about economics.)  I find the economic and social shifts they outline and the statistical evidence of these shifts is very compelling.  I have NOT fact checked all their statistics but the paper is "MIT" grade and to me appear intellectually rigorous.


Finally, I have included the a link to the ENTIRE paper with all it's attended charts and graphs  However,  if you find reading this to tedious you can get the gist of its' suppostions, hypothesis and content from some high level "overview" content by Third Way" and the authors. This was selected by yours truly and is presented  cut and paste in italics (note underlining and bold face are MY edits for emphasis).



So from portions of the Overview: "Wayward Sons" The Emerging Gender Gap in Labor Markets and Education

"It is widely assumed that the traditional male domination of postsecondary education, highly paid occupations, and elite professions is a virtually immutable fact of the U.S. economic landscape.     But in reality, this landscape is undergoing a tectonic shift. Although a significant minority of males continues to reach the highest echelons of achievement in education and labor markets, the median male is moving in the opposite direction. Over the last three decades, the labor market trajectory of males in the U.S. has turned downward along four dimensions: skills acquisition; employment rates; occupational stature; and real wage levels.

One can look at these findings and see either a glass “half empty” or a glass “half full.” On the more optimistic side the gains of women have been nothing less than stunning; a testament to the success of the feminist movement and the dedication of progressive politicians and activists to women’s rights. 

The paper documents a dramatic decline in the gender gap, a decline “...reflecting an increase in the skills and labor market experience of female workers as they have entered professional, managerial, and technical fields and reduced their concentration in traditionally female-dominated occupations such as teaching and nursing.” On the other hand the paper shows that women’s success has come about, in part, because of failure on the part of men. Over a period of time when the economic returns on education were increasing, male educational attainment—and therefore income—has stagnated..  

As the authors admit, there are no easy answers to why the gender gap between men and women has opened up in such an unexpected direction. They show that “simple shifts in occupational structure are insufficient to explain the puzzle of declining real wages of non-college males in the U.S. during the last three decades." 


"During this same time frame in the study marriage has declined dramatically and has lost much of its economic value to women, leading many women to conclude that they can raise a child without a long-term partner. This is especially pronounced at the bottom of the socio-economic scale where the combination of low male wages and high incarceration rates among young men has affected the pool of potential partners for women.

These emerging gender gaps suggest reason for concern. While the news for women is good, the news for men is poor. These gaps in educational attainment and labor market advancement will pose two significant challenges for social and economic policy. First, because education has become an increasingly important determinant of lifetime income over the last three decades—and, more concretely, because earnings and employment prospects for less-educated U.S. workers have sharply deteriorated—the stagnation of male educational attainment bodes ill for the well-being of recent cohorts of U.S. males, particularly minorities and those from low-income households. Recent cohorts of males are likely to face diminished employment and earnings opportunities and other attendant maladies, including poorer health, higher probability of incarceration, and generally lower life satisfaction.


To preview, we argue first that sharp declines in the earnings power of non-college males combined with gains in the economic self-sufficiency of women—rising educational attainment, a falling gender gap, and greater female control over fertility choices—have reduced the economic value of marriage for women. This has catalyzed a sharp decline in the marriage rates of non-college U.S. adults—both in absolute terms and relative to college-educated adults—a steep rise in
the fraction of U.S. children born out of wedlock, and a commensurate growth in the fraction of children reared in households characterized by absent fathers.

MY COMMENT:  THE NEXT PARAGRAPH WOULD SUGGEST A DANGEROUS FEEDBACK LOOP

The second part of the hypothesis posits that the increased prevalence of single-headed households and the diminished child-rearing role played by stable male parents may serve to reinforce the emerging gender gaps in education and labor force participation by negatively affecting male children in particular. Specifically, we review evidence that suggests that male children raised in single-parent households tend to fare particularly poorly, with effects apparent in almost all academic and economic outcomes.

One reason why single-headedness may affect male children more and differently than female children is that the vast majority of single-headed households are female-headed households. Thus, boys raised in these households are less likely to have a positive or stable same-sex role model present. Moreover, male and female children reared in female-headed households may form divergent expectations about their own roles in adulthood—with girls anticipating assuming primary childrearing and primary income earning responsibilities in adulthood and boys anticipating assuming a secondary role in both domains.

Note:  This study was published 5 years ago in March 2013


Until next time I soberly bid
Adieu

Link to study
https://economics.mit.edu/files/8754


ABOUT THE AUTHORS
David Autor is a Professor and Associate
Department Head of the Massachusetts Institute
of Technology Department of Economics. He is
also a Faculty Research Associate of the National
Bureau of Economic Research and Editor in Chief
of the Journal of Economic Perspectives (published
by the American Economic Association), and has
served on the Board of Editors at the American Economic Journal:
Applied Economics and the Journal of Labor Economics. Autor
received a B.A. in Psychology from Tufts University in 1989 and a
Ph.D. in Public Policy at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of
Government in 1999. Autor is the recipient of an NSF CAREER
award for his research on labor market intermediation, the Alfred P.
Sloan Foundation Fellowship, and the Sherwin Rosen Prize in 2008
for outstanding contributions in the field of Labor Economics. In
2012, he was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Science,
and he is also a Fellow of the Society of Labor Economists and was a
recipient of both the John T. Dunlop Outstanding Scholar Award
given by the Labor and Employment Relations Association (2006)
and MIT Undergraduate Economics Association Teaching Award
(2005). Prior to obtaining his Ph.D., Autor spent three years directing
efforts in San Francisco and South Africa to teach computer skills to
economically disadvantaged children and adults.


Melanie Wasserman is a Ph.D. student in
Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology and a National Science Foundation
Graduate Research Fellowship recipient. Her
current research interests include gender
discrimination in the labor market, the economic
determinants of U.S. family structure changes,
and intergenerational transmission of human capital. She received a
B.A. from the University of California, Berkeley in Economics and
German. Prior to graduate school, she worked as a research associate
for the Jameel Poverty Action Lab.