Saturday, March 31, 2018

What on earth would we do without "experts"!



I think you guys all had either fatigue or worse on the gender topic.  Frankly the last post or two generated two responses from my two sisters who both also seemed fatigued by the topic.  So obviously a pause from blogging serious issues is necessary.

US News and World Reports is well known for its' specialized "lists" and databases on various topics.  Likely many of you have seen their annual rankings of US Colleges.  Like most people I get a kick out of such rankings, and usually peek for example at how my Alma Mater stacks up.  Their "studies" are always based on some "scientific criteria" that their "experts" concoct.   They understand that such "studies" and "lists" gain attention and generate lots of "clicks" on-line.

Recently they did an extensive "study" on community health. It drew my interest when I saw that a bunch of Colorado counties ranked in the top 25....including my own Grand County which came in 17th out of 3,000! I noted their "analysis" was based on a comprehensive data ranking of many factors which seemed to emphasize life expectancy very heavily, and that a number of "mountain" and skiing centers made the top 25 as well.  Some of you may recall that in  a prior post  (when we bought our place last year)  I claimed living at high altitudes correlated with better life expectancies.  I thought wow, see Jim you were correct making your claim last year.  I promptly texted the link to my Lafayette buddies, 3 of which are blog followers, I do tend to gloat!.

Unfortunately, like a dog with a bone I decided to delve "deeper" into the study.  This has consumed several hours of my time, but hey I am retired and love "statistics.  For fun I started by looking up all of my Blog followers home zip codes to customize for each of you where your county ranks according to US News and World Reports.  Yes a free service to my followers.

Here are your rankings and life expectancy numbers provided free of charge!

National Average Life Expectancy-77.9

James (My Son and his family came in first.  His Colorado County was 2nd in the entire list and had a life expectancy of 83.7 years.

Here are the rest, in order (note Blog followers John and Howard are listed under Stowe Vermont but also have homes in Boston and Venice Florida so if they want that could check out Steve and Debbie's rank):

Jim and Barb         17th   82.7
Ethel                      53rd   80.1
Maria                     62nd   80.1
Steve and Deb       65th    81.5
Whitey                   77th   82.5
Susan                     85th   81.7
Howard and John  177th  80.2
Phil                        447th  78.8

After spending about 2 hours calculating this "font" of knowledge my "gloating" turned a bit sour.  First while heavily weighted on life expectancy it was obvious that it was not the only "driver" of "Healthiest" places to live.  So did I stop there?

 Of course not.  I first pondered the Statistical sample size for each "county", thinking that my own Grand County sample for example has like 15,000 people, while some counties have 500,000 people.  I also pondered the demographics and likely life events of our county (and the other "mountain towns" in the top 25 as well).  For example my county has a 20% "no health" insurance average, well above the national average of 12%.  The reason-you cannot get reasonable cost health insurance here.  Barbara pays $1800 PER MONTH for her health coverage with a  $6,000 dollar deductible!  I wonder how many ski bums working as bartenders and lift operators can afford that??   Life expectancy might be higher in these mountain towns because someday if I get severely sick I may move (or just die) in a hospital in Denver.  No credibility in the stats for that.  My gloating about living at high altitudes would keep me alive longer became perhaps just a statistical fantasy. 

My next move was to check closer the US News top 25.  First from there study overview (please forgive my formatting I cannot keep fixing!):

"The U.S. News Healthiest Communities rankings measure crucial health-related components of society with the aim of empowering citizens, health care leaders and officials to make decisions about policies and practices that can improve health outcomes for all. Guided by a pioneering framework developed by a committee appointed to advise the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the project scores nearly 3,000 counties on approximately 80 indicators across 10 categories that drive health outcomes. Population health and equity are the most heavily weighted categories, based on the assessments of more than a dozen leading experts on what matters most to a community’s health.

So As a Public Service I am providing the Top 25,  with some selected comments from Wikipedia along  my own quick comment. 
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Wikipedia comment- Falls Church is included in the Washington metropolitan area. Falls Church has the lowest level of poverty of any independent city or county in the United States.[4]

My Comment- Rich federal Government overloads


Wikipedia comment- Douglas County has the highest median household income of any Colorado county or statistical equivalent. It is ranked ninth nationally in that category, and has the highest of any county or equivalent not in the DC or NY metro areas

My Comment- One of Richest places in US

The population was 55,889 at the 2010 United States Census.[6] Broomfield is the 16th most populous municipality and the 13th most populous county in Colorado.

 My Comment- WORTH DIGGING INTO?

The county has one of the highest number of PhDs per capita[citation needed] and the 2011 median household income of $110,204 per year is the second highest among all the counties in the US. In per capita income, Los Alamos County ranks 1st in New Mexico and 7th in the United States, and has the second-lowest level of poverty in the United States, and the lowest level of child poverty.[3] Other factors contributing to Los Alamos' high quality-of-life index were the access to affordable housing and short commuting times.

My Comment- One of most educated and richest places in US 


 Dukes County comprises the Vineyard Haven, MA Micropolitan Statistical Area. The county consists of the island of Martha's Vineyard (including Chappaquiddick Island), the Elizabeth Islands (including Cuttyhunk), the island of Nomans Land, and other associated islets.

My Comment-Are You Kidding- The Kennedy's and Kerry's Enclave!!!

The city of Fairfax is an enclave within the separate political entity Fairfax County. The city of Fairfax and the area immediately surrounding the historical border of the city of Fairfax, collectively designated by Fairfax County as "Fairfax", comprise the county seat of Fairfax County. The city is part of the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area as well as a part of Northern Virginia. The city is 17 miles (27 km) west of Washington, D.C.  

My Comment- Rich federal Government overloads

Today, the county is one of the fastest-growing counties in the United States. According to 2007 estimates by the U.S. Census, the county’s population increased from an estimated 182,740 in 2000 to 261,661 in 2007, making it the fastest-growing county in Indiana out of 92. Recently, Hamilton County surpassed St. Joseph County in population, making it the fourth most populous in the state.[2]

MMy Comment- Worth Digging Into?

8. Routt County, Colorado  Routt County is one of the 64 counties in the U.S. state of Colorado. As of the 2010 census, the population was 23,509.[1] The county seat is Steamboat Springs.[2]
Routt County comprises the Steamboat Springs, CO Micropolitan Statistical Area.

My Comment-Ski Town Small Mountain Town

Ouray County /ˈjʊəreɪ/ is one of the 64 counties of the U.S. state of Colorado. As of the 2010 census, the population was 4,436.[1] The county seat is Ouray.[2] Because of its rugged mountain topography, Ouray County is also known as the Switzerland of America.

My Comment-Small Mountain Town

 Loudoun County (/ˈlaʊdən/ LOWD-ən) is a county in the Commonwealth of Virginia in the United States. In 2015, the population was estimated at 375,629,[3] making it Virginia's third-most populous county. Loudoun County's seat is Leesburg.[4] Loudoun County is part of the Washington–Arlington–Alexandria, DC–VA–MD–WV Metropolitan Statistical Area.
As of 2012, Loudoun County had a median household income of $117,876. Since 2008, the county has been ranked first in the U.S. in median household income among jurisdictions with a population of 65,000 or more.[5]


ds
My Comment Rich Federal Government overlords
As of the 2000 Census, Ozaukee County had the 2nd lowest poverty rate of any county in the United States, at 2.6%. In terms of per capita income, it is the 25th wealthiest county in the country. Bolstered by low crime rates and school districts with high graduation rates, Forbes magazine ranked Ozaukee County #2 on its list of "America's Best Places To Raise A Family" in June, 2008.[3]

My Comment Wealthy Community


 12. Delaware County, Ohio Delaware County is a county in the U.S. state of Ohio. As of the 2010 census, the population was 174,214.[3] Its county seat is Delaware, Ohio.[4] The county was formed in 1808 from Franklin County, Ohio. Both the county and its seat are named after the Delaware Indian tribe.

My Comment-Worth Digging Into?

Carver County is a county in the U.S. state of Minnesota. As of the 2010 census, the population was 91,042.[2] Its county seat is Chaska.[3] Carver County is named after the explorer Jonathan Carver, who in 1766-67, traveled from Boston to the Minnesota River, and wintered among the Sioux near the site of New Ulm.[4]

My Comment-Worth Digging Into?

  Sublette County is a county located in the U.S. state of Wyoming. As of the 2010 census, the population was 10,247.[1] The county seat is Pinedale.[2] It is a sparsely populated rural county in western Wyoming, along the Green River.

My Comment-Small Mountain Town


Washington County is a county located in the U.S. state of Minnesota. As of the 2010 census, the population was 238,136,[2] making it the fifth-most populous county in Minnesota. Its county seat is Stillwater.[3] The largest city in the county is Woodbury, which had a population of 61,961 at the 2010 census. The county was established in 1849.[4]

My Comment-Worth Digging Into?


Rockingham County is a county located in the U.S. state of New Hampshire. As of the 2010 census, the population was 295,223,[1] making it the second-most populous county in New Hampshire. The county seatis Brentwood.[2] Rockingham County constitutes a portion of the Boston-Cambridge-NewtonMA-NH Metropolitan Statistical Area as well as of the greater Boston-Worcester-Providence, MA-RI-NH-CTCombined Statistical Area.

My Comment-Worth Digging Into?

Grand County is one of the 64 counties in the U.S. state of Colorado. As of the 2010 census, the population was 14,843.[1] The county seat is Hot Sulphur Springs.[2] 


My Comment -Small Mountain Towns


Norfolk County is a county located in the U.S. state of Massachusetts. At the 2010 census, the population was 670,850.[1] Its county seat is Dedham.[2] The county was named after the English county of the same name with the meaning "northern folk".[3] Two towns, Cohasset and Brookline, are exclaves.
Norfolk County is included in the Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH Metropolitan Statistical Area.
My Comment-Worth Digging Into?

19. Teton County, Wyoming
Teton County is a county located in the U.S. state of Wyoming. As of the 2010 census, the population was 21,294.[1] Its county seat is Jackson.[2] It is east from the Idaho state line.
Teton County is part of the Jackson, WY-ID Micropolitan Statistical Area.
Teton County contains the Jackson Hole ski area.

My Comment-Small mountain ski town


Howard County is frequently cited for its affluence, quality of life, and excellent schools. With an estimated median household income of $108,844 in 2012, Howard County had the third-highest median household income of any U.S. county in 2013.[3] Many of the most affluent communities in the Baltimore-Washington Metropolitan Area, such as ClarksvilleDaytonGlenelgGlenwood, and West Friendship, are located along the Route 32 corridor in Howard County. 


My Comment-Rich Federal Government Overlords

Fairfax was the first U.S. county to reach a six-figure median household income and has the second-highest median household income of any local jurisdiction in the United States after neighbor Loudoun County.[4][5]  

My Comment-Rich Federal Government Overlords


Winneshiek County is a county located in the U.S. state of Iowa. As of the 2010 census, the population was 21,056.[1] The county seat is Decorah.[2] 
Largely rural and agricultural county, Winneshiek County has a rich cultural history from CzechSlovakEnglishIrishGermanSwiss, and Norwegian immigrants that have settled within its boundaries.

My Comment-Worth Digging Into?


 Williamson County is ranked among the wealthiest counties in the country. In 2006 it was the 17th-wealthiest county in the country according to the U.S. Census Bureau, but the Council for Community and Economic Research ranked Williamson County as America's wealthiest county (1st) when the local cost of living was factored into the equation with median household income.[17] In 2010, Williamson County is listed 17th on the Forbes list of the 25 wealthiest counties in America.[18] 

My Comment- Wealthy Town

Chaffee County is one of the 64 counties of the U.S. state of Colorado. As of the 2010 census, the population was 17,809.[2] The county seat is Salida

My Comment -Small Mountain Town


Morgan County is a county in northern UtahUnited States. As of the 2010 census, the population was 9,469.[1] Its county seat and largest city is Morgan.[2] The county was named for Jedediah Morgan Grant, father of Heber J. Grant, who served as president of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.
Morgan County is part of the Ogden-Clearfield, UT Metropolitan Statistical Area as well as the Salt Lake City-Provo-Orem, UT Combined Statistical Area.

My Comment Small Mountain Town


To Summarize some conclusions:

A better way to consider what drives healthier places to live:

1.  Be wealthy, live with other wealthy people around you.
2.  Work for the Federal Government in DC area maybe developing framework for studies like this. ( I found it enlightening that so many high income places were in DC area!).
3.  Unless you like to ski discount whatever health benefits come from living in small mountain towns
4.  Experts and lists from US News and World Reports don't really tell us shit.

Boy will I avoid pondering "lists' in the future!


Until next time
Adieu












6 comments:

  1. Lotta work buddy.

    Anyhow- I think a better list and research would be happiest towns in America - more important than longevity.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Yes Phil could not agree more. Curious how you could quantify that but being happy for whatever time we have is number 1.

    Reader Debbie Clark sent me an email but like others has had trouble posting comments.
    Here is her comment!

    Hey, Jim, very interesting. However, I would never move to live longer. I believe loving where you live, your surroundings and your home makes a difference in happiness and, therefore, health.
    Btw, Steve and I grew up in Norfolk County in MA. His father died in his early 70s, my mother at 49 and my brother at 48. His Mom lived to 81. They all lived in Norfolk County!!

    ReplyDelete
  3. I try not to make too many comments on the blog since I live with someone who is 'fixated' on statistics. I agree with Debbie- if you love where you live and work you'll be happy. If you are a happy person inside, you'll be happy and healthier outside. However, most of us would agree that living next to a coal mine, pollution spewing factory, or the love canal isn’t good for life expectancy. But yet we want to heat our homes, fill them with 'stuff' and drugs (chemicals) that deface other communities. What could be the solution?
    Thanks for a thought provoking blog that also deals with the separation of our society but in a different way.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Jim, great work and I have two comments. First, when my time is up in Bergen County, NJ can I move in with you and Barb? Second, you will never get back the hours you spent on this analysis. Glad you never wanted to be an actuary �� Regards, Whitey

    ReplyDelete
  5. Love the comments Whitey. However, not sure moving in with us is statistically wise, only gets you an extra 60 days.. we would likely both cut off a year or 2 from our lives from more cigars and booze!
    As to actuaries..well we both can relate to that dismal science!

    ReplyDelete
  6. My Sister Susan has had similar frustrations with Google's Blogger that others have had. I am posting a comment on her behalf!
    Jim,

    II a beyond frustrated with being able to respond on your blog! Sometimes it works, sometimes not. Tonight, not.
    Anyway, I will briefly state what I tried to write...
    First, wealthy folks living in nice, clean, healthy neighborhoods near other wealthy, healthy folks (who have access to reliable comprehensive health insurance)... seems like a no-brainer to me in terms of life expectancy. I agree, no “list” needed there.
    Second, I agree that happiness is a factor in overall well-being. I believe it is the country of Bhutan who utilize GNH as a serious measurement of how well their country is doing. Check it out! :) S.

    ReplyDelete