Once upon a time not so long ago
Tommy used to work on the docks, union's been
on strike
He's down on his luck, it's tough, so tough
Gina works the diner all day working for her man
She brings home her pay, for love, for love
He's down on his luck, it's tough, so tough
Gina works the diner all day working for her man
She brings home her pay, for love, for love
She says, we've got to hold on to what we've
got
It doesn't make a difference if we make it or not
We've got each other and that's a lot for love
We'll give it a shot
It doesn't make a difference if we make it or not
We've got each other and that's a lot for love
We'll give it a shot
Woah, we're half way there
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Take my hand, we'll make it I swear
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Take my hand, we'll make it I swear
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Tommy's got his six-string in hock
Now he's holding in what he used to make it talk
So tough, it's tough
Gina dreams of running away
When she cries in the night, Tommy whispers
Baby, it's okay, someday
Now he's holding in what he used to make it talk
So tough, it's tough
Gina dreams of running away
When she cries in the night, Tommy whispers
Baby, it's okay, someday
We've got to hold on to what we've got
It doesn't make a difference if we make it or not
We've got each other and that's a lot for love
We'll give it a shot
It doesn't make a difference if we make it or not
We've got each other and that's a lot for love
We'll give it a shot
Woah, we're half way there
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Take my hand, we'll make it I swear
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Livin' on a prayer
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Take my hand, we'll make it I swear
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Livin' on a prayer
Oh, we've got to hold on, ready or not
You live for the fight when it's all that you've got
Woah, we're half way there
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Take my hand, we'll make it I swear
Woah, livin' on a prayer
You live for the fight when it's all that you've got
Woah, we're half way there
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Take my hand, we'll make it I swear
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Woah, we're half way there
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Take my hand, we'll make it I swear
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Take my hand, we'll make it I swear
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Woah, we're half way
there
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Take my hand, we'll make it I swear
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Take my hand, we'll make it I swear
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Songwriters: Jon Bon
Jovi / Desmond Child / Richard S. Sambora
Today’s blog will be a continuation of “Coronavirus” with an
eye at simply exploring some of the State by State numbers in an effort to start
thinking of changes to “normal” (whatever
that looks like) Post Pandemic.
First some numbers which are available to all at this
website
Worldometers.info./coronavirus/country/US/
This Chart was copied and put into excel so I could sort. This sort is based on the “red” numbers which
represent “deaths’ by state per 1,000,000 in population. It is sorted highest to lowest.
I have highlighted states of interest in yellow for some questions
and speculation. Those are below this
chart. Data was “pulled” a couple of days ago-April 8th.
|
USA
State |
Total
Cases |
New
Cases |
Total
Deaths |
New
Deaths |
Active
Cases |
Tot Cases/
1M pop |
Deaths/
1M pop |
Total
Tests |
Tests/
1M pop |
|
New
York
|
151,171
|
+8,787
|
6,268
|
+779
|
128,888
|
7,706
|
319
|
365,153
|
18,613
|
|
New
Jersey
|
47,437
|
+3,021
|
1,504
|
+272
|
45,841
|
5,341
|
169
|
100,326
|
11,296
|
|
Louisiana
|
17,030
|
+746
|
652
|
+70
|
16,328
|
3,652
|
140
|
81,406
|
17,456
|
|
Michigan
|
20,346
|
+1,376
|
959
|
+114
|
19,318
|
2,043
|
96
|
51,708
|
5,193
|
|
Connecticut
|
8,781
|
+1,000
|
335
|
+58
|
8,396
|
2,452
|
94
|
31,700
|
8,851
|
|
Massachusetts
|
16,790
|
+1,588
|
433
|
+77
|
16,347
|
2,458
|
63
|
87,511
|
12,812
|
|
Washington
|
9,342
|
+660
|
431
|
+28
|
7,997
|
1,281
|
59
|
92,073
|
12,623
|
|
District Of Columbia
|
1,440
|
+229
|
27
|
+3
|
1,052
|
2,104
|
39
|
8,283
|
12,101
|
|
Vermont
|
605
|
+30
|
23
|
|
582
|
968
|
37
|
7,749
|
12,399
|
|
Illinois
|
15,078
|
+1,529
|
462
|
+82
|
14,566
|
1,176
|
36
|
75,066
|
5,855
|
|
Georgia
|
10,204
|
+1,048
|
370
|
+22
|
9,803
|
991
|
36
|
38,787
|
3,767
|
|
Colorado
|
5,655
|
+226
|
193
|
+14
|
5,422
|
1,022
|
35
|
29,199
|
5,279
|
|
Rhode Island
|
1,450
|
+221
|
35
|
+5
|
1,405
|
1,372
|
33
|
12,132
|
11,482
|
|
Indiana
|
5,943
|
+436
|
203
|
+30
|
5,726
|
895
|
31
|
30,869
|
4,651
|
|
Pennsylvania
|
16,743
|
+1,798
|
314
|
+64
|
16,295
|
1,309
|
25
|
98,538
|
7,704
|
|
Nevada
|
2,318
|
+231
|
71
|
+13
|
2,211
|
793
|
24
|
22,865
|
7,823
|
|
Mississippi
|
2,003
|
+88
|
67
|
+8
|
1,936
|
670
|
22
|
20,635
|
6,904
|
|
Maryland
|
5,529
|
+1,158
|
124
|
+21
|
5,117
|
921
|
21
|
38,462
|
6,407
|
|
Oklahoma
|
1,524
|
+52
|
79
|
+12
|
923
|
389
|
20
|
13,345
|
3,406
|
|
Delaware
|
1,116
|
+188
|
19
|
+3
|
938
|
1,175
|
20
|
8,744
|
9,209
|
|
Wisconsin
|
2,756
|
+178
|
103
|
+11
|
2,588
|
477
|
18
|
32,871
|
5,689
|
|
Ohio
|
5,148
|
+366
|
193
|
+26
|
4,955
|
442
|
17
|
53,341
|
4,582
|
|
Florida
|
15,698
|
+951
|
323
|
+27
|
15,275
|
762
|
16
|
144,570
|
7,019
|
|
Kentucky
|
1,346
|
+197
|
73
|
+8
|
967
|
303
|
16
|
21,620
|
4,869
|
|
Missouri
|
3,431
|
+394
|
85
|
+15
|
3,277
|
563
|
14
|
34,110
|
5,601
|
|
Alabama
|
2,499
|
+302
|
67
|
+3
|
2,412
|
514
|
14
|
18,982
|
3,902
|
|
California
|
18,830
|
+1,370
|
498
|
+64
|
17,392
|
481
|
13
|
144,264
|
3,685
|
|
South Carolina
|
2,552
|
+135
|
63
|
+12
|
2,489
|
515
|
13
|
24,634
|
4,971
|
|
Kansas
|
1,046
|
+134
|
38
|
+7
|
1,008
|
360
|
13
|
10,183
|
3,501
|
|
New Hampshire
|
788
|
+41
|
18
|
+5
|
543
|
586
|
13
|
9,177
|
6,830
|
|
Tennessee
|
4,362
|
+224
|
79
|
+7
|
3,656
|
656
|
12
|
56,618
|
8,513
|
|
Arizona
|
2,726
|
+151
|
80
|
+7
|
2,626
|
392
|
12
|
34,564
|
4,976
|
|
Idaho
|
1,232
|
+22
|
18
|
+3
|
1,214
|
730
|
11
|
11,898
|
7,049
|
|
Maine
|
537
|
+18
|
14
|
+2
|
336
|
403
|
11
|
6,625
|
4,971
|
|
Virginia
|
3,645
|
+312
|
75
|
+12
|
3,568
|
433
|
9
|
30,645
|
3,642
|
|
Oregon
|
1,239
|
+58
|
38
|
+5
|
1,201
|
304
|
9
|
24,564
|
6,018
|
|
Iowa
|
1,145
|
+96
|
27
|
+1
|
1,029
|
366
|
9
|
13,966
|
4,458
|
|
Alaska
|
226
|
+13
|
7
|
+1
|
187
|
306
|
9
|
7,068
|
9,571
|
|
New Mexico
|
865
|
+71
|
16
|
+3
|
678
|
413
|
8
|
23,807
|
11,378
|
|
Texas
|
10,065
|
+1,126
|
195
|
+28
|
9,100
|
361
|
7
|
96,258
|
3,452
|
|
Minnesota
|
1,154
|
+85
|
39
|
+5
|
483
|
209
|
7
|
30,753
|
5,564
|
|
South Dakota
|
393
|
+73
|
6
|
|
241
|
455
|
7
|
6,748
|
7,808
|
|
Puerto Rico
|
620
|
+47
|
24
|
+1
|
592
|
183
|
7
|
6,052
|
1,787
|
|
North Carolina
|
3,562
|
+241
|
63
|
+9
|
3,413
|
351
|
6
|
42,987
|
4,233
|
|
Arkansas
|
1,077
|
+131
|
18
|
|
822
|
360
|
6
|
14,909
|
4,985
|
|
Nebraska
|
519
|
+41
|
12
|
+2
|
507
|
272
|
6
|
7,978
|
4,188
|
|
Montana
|
332
|
+13
|
6
|
|
191
|
319
|
6
|
7,398
|
7,102
|
|
North Dakota
|
251
|
+14
|
4
|
|
149
|
334
|
5
|
8,607
|
11,442
|
|
Utah
|
1,846
|
+108
|
13
|
|
1,807
|
606
|
4
|
36,116
|
11,859
|
|
Hawaii
|
435
|
+25
|
5
|
|
317
|
306
|
4
|
15,149
|
10,653
|
|
West Virginia
|
483
|
+71
|
4
|
|
479
|
264
|
2
|
12,859
|
7,030
|
|
Wyoming
|
230
|
+9
|
|
|
136
|
395
|
|
4,064
|
6,985
|
|
Guam
|
121
|
|
4
|
|
90
|
|
|
605
|
|
|
Northern Mariana Islands
|
11
|
+3
|
2
|
|
9
|
|
|
45
|
|
|
United States Virgin Islands
|
43
|
|
1
|
|
8
|
|
|
266
|
|
|
US Military
|
3,160
|
+503
|
8
|
+1
|
2,928
|
|
|
0
|
|
|
Wuhan Repatriated
|
3
|
|
|
|
3
|
|
|
3
|
|
|
Diamond Princess Cruise
|
46
|
|
|
|
46
|
|
|
46
|
|
|
US Total
|
434,927
|
+31,935
|
14,788
|
+1,940
|
395,813
|
1,314
|
45
|
2,208,901
|
6,673
|
Before laying
some thoughts out I confess that this novel is not yet over. Who knows where Pennsylvania (Philly) and
Colorado for example end up. In Colorado
they do not believe the National models which say we are peaked, their “local”
models say late May or June. I like that
states us their own models but frankly who knows which will be closest. Early news from my Philly friends sounds
ominous.
First up, no
surprise is NY, NJ are the two highest followed closely by Louisiana. Speculation is that Louisiana and Mardi Gras
were a social distance nightmare, NY and NJ (and Southern Connecticut) with high density
living coupled with subway’s Path and NJ transit are as well. This leads me to some quick “Observations”/Thoughts:
1. High Density, High Mass Transit might well be determined
to be difficult to live with if we really wish to avoid Pandemics. I remember many hot crowded NJ Transit and NY
Subway rides. I think many who can,
particularly those who can work from home anyway, will decide to move out. Winter Park anyone (our county 4 cases and no
change in 3 weeks)? China has managed
high density living but only with brutal surveillance. Stop and frisk for “COVID” passes anyone? I see potentially huge changes in store for
Boston, Philly, Baltimore and DC all Mass Transit driven.
2. Now
look at California (Newsome for Pres???).
I would love to know what goes on there.
I understand California has at least as many (if not more) flights to and from
China than NY-NJ. It has a similar mix
of low, middle, and high, income populations.
Racial makeup may be more diverse than NY state. Including a large population of people with connections to China. They certainly have more homeless. Were they just much better at their social
distance orders and stay at home compliance?
I think more likely the High-Tech businesses around SF have more at home
workers, and we may learn that their populations love of Auto’s and Freeways helped
keep people isolated in their commutes .
Be interesting to know all the reasons but for sure we should learn
something there. (one big caution of
course: the way this virus acts who knows. Next week the numbers may be all wrong? )
3. Likewise,
that great State of Oregon has some incredible numbers so far. I do not remember Portland as a Mass Transit
city.
4. Finally,
how Bout them Cowboys, sitting right there next to Louisiana but seemingly
doing very well. If it was “Mardi Gras”
then the rapidity with which a mass event like that spreads this virus does not
bode well for mass gatherings. Remember Austin
cancelling that Festival…good move! Funny though wonder what happened at Super
Bowl a few weeks before? Anyway if Texas remains "low" on impact (deaths anyway) wide open spaces anyone?
There are many other thoughts on this, and I am sure the “experts” are
pondering them all. I just do not see
how anyone can contemplate an area like the NY Metro as currently “structured” coping
with future scary new virus strains that can spread like wildfire with many
having few symptoms.
As always, I look forward to any insights you may have. Meanwhile have a Joyous Easter/ Passover.
With that I bid you adieu.
Dear Jim...and blog readers too!
ReplyDeleteWhenever you start getting into the weeds with data my eyes glaze over. You love it and ways of looking at it...it gives me a headache. However, I do believe data driven opinions are imperative. I just read the analysis of those who have looked at the numbers and form my opinions from there. I agree with you that density and mass transportation are factors in the spread and per capita death rate of COVID19. That is probably true of all the human to human transference of all respiratory illnesses. I do not believe this pandemic will change any of those behaviors in the NYC and NJ area. These pandemics do not occur often enough for places like Paris, London, Tokyo, or NewYork to change their entire way of life. We will have, nationally, much less loss of life that expected and that is a really good thing. But, considering we do nothing to change our behavior for loss of life of 60,000 flu victims each year I am assuming these times too will pass. I am amazed that the entire world will sequester to save the most vulnerable from COVID 19, but the majority of people won’t get a yearly flu shot to accomplish the same thing relative to flu. Heck it comes every year and what the heck it is only 60,000 people not a million plus like the corona viruses or Spanish Flu. Thanks for sharing. I will stay out of the weeds now, and go back into my own lane.
Love ya,
Happy Easter,
Ethel
Hi Jim, good point on mass transportation as I can attest to in Boston the "T"is offensive to ride on and had massive failures in recent years with the public up in arms. My view is the pandemic has and will force a new world order amongst the work forces whereby large work forces will be empowered from home offices thus shifting the demand on various modes of transportation i.e. train,bus etc. In time infrastructure costs could be reduced both to industry and the public. Industry will not need huge real estate holdings for their personnel and the same for government. Teaching remotely could be another huge cost savings given the results from this epidemic prove effective.
ReplyDeleteWell since I haven’t been anywhere like South Africa or Argentina in the last several years I got nothing to weigh in with.
ReplyDeleteEthel
ReplyDeleteYou need to have Google timeline....
Of course you like most people, having Google track your every move,as I do, seems a bit weird. Thanks for commenting!