Those were the days my friend(s)

Those Were The Days!

Mary Hopkin

Once upon a time there was a tavern
Where we used to raise a glass or two
Remember how we laughed away the hours
And think of all the great things we would do

Those were the days my friend
We thought they'd never end
We'd sing and dance forever and a day
We'd live the life we choose
We'd fight and never lose
For we were young and sure to have our way
La la la la la la
La la la la la la
La la la la La la la la la la

Then the busy years went rushing by us
We lost our starry notions on the way
If by chance I'd see you in the tavern
We'd smile at one another and we'd say

Those were the days my friend
We thought they'd never end
We'd sing and dance forever and a day
We'd live the life we choose
We'd fight and never lose
Those were the days, oh yes those were the…days!

Today's Observation is a simple one.   Pictures and Google Timeline says it all!

Today's Timeline shows my walk while "Housebound":

While this day one year ago shows travels far, far away:

And two very different Pictures:

This year as I type:

Last Year

Can you recall this time last year???

A simple Observation

Those were the days my friend, we thought they'ed never end!

With that I bid you adieu!

Obsession with Numbers

1,2,3,4,5

6,7,8,9,10

Let’s do it again

1,2,3,4,5

6,7,8,9,10

Today’s blog is all about “The Numbers” but this will be a break from the dismal US Stats on the Corona Virus. Instead it will be about some very personal numbers, stimulated in part by:

1.      Finding something to do while “quarantined”.

2.     A personal look at my own “obsession with numbers and “Stats”, coupled with:

a.     A recent WSJ article about a guy who gave up coffee for three months. How he found it enhanced his sleep and gave him vivid dreams. (He ended up going back to coffee anyway, however)

b.     My personal Obsession with “Fitbit” stats which tracks sleep, steps, heart-rate etc.

c.      A sense that I was getting grumpy, and Short tempered with my ‘Faithful and Obedient Companion”, particularly during our “stay at home” quarantine.

Some background:

Two weeks ago, I decided to stop drinking coffee (Note: I am a very heavy coffee drinker-averaging at least 1.5 POTS per day something I have done for years). At first, I figured I would give up all coffee for a week. In addition, since I feared that giving up coffee would likely cause me to gain weight, I tacked on abstaining from alcohol as well,  in an effort to offset any increased calories I might be tempted to ingest by forgoing coffee.  My experiment was extended an extra week based on positive feedback from my better half and a sense that like all statisticians, I needed “more data”.

Now my Fitbit (The replacement one I got for Christmas) tracks both sleep duration and assigns a sleep score based not only on duration but also Heartrate and Oxygen saturation and “stages”  (REM, Light and deep).  Of course It also tracks the usual activities like steps, cardiac load, heart rate by the minute etc. I find it all very “fascinating”. One thing that has been driving me crazy, however, was how, invariably, my sleep stats were always worse than my “Faithful and Obedient” companions. I rarely “beat her” and the fact my sleep was always classified “poor” or at best “fair” while hers was always “Fair” or “Good” and sometime even “excellent”.

Funny I always attributed it to my “father’s” old saying when we discussed a good night’s sleep. He always attributed that (without a Fitbit of course) to a “clear conscience, or no conscience at all”. In that respect I always attributed “My Faithful and Obedient Companions” great nights sleep to the latter!.  She in turn almost always said simply “you drink too much coffee dear”.

Now for the “stats”:

 Here are my weekly scores since the end of January (Note I had to return my Christmas present due to a defect after New Years so my scoring was based on weekly number starting with the end of January). 

These are Weekly Averages:

Jan 26-Feb 1           Fair 66 Score        6:30 Avg Time            67-61    Resting Heart rate range

Feb 2-Feb 8            Fair 72                  6:17                             61-64

Feb 9-Feb 15          Fair 75                  6:44                             60-62   

Feb 16-Feb 22        Fair 76                  6:36                             58-61

Feb 23-Feb 29        Fair 74                  6:51                             64-61

Mar 1- Mar 7          Fair 72                  6:16                             61-64

Mar 8- Mar 15        Fair 74                  6:36                             61-66

Mar 15-Mar21        Fair 76                  6:17                             61-63

Mar 22-Mar 28       Fair 67                  5:58                             60-64

Mar29-Apr 4           Fair 73                 6:09                              62-63

Apr 5-Apr 11          Fair 75                  6:23                             59-63

Apr 12- Apr 18       Fair 73                  6:17                             57-60

Apr 19-   Now         Fair 74                 7:00                             57-59

Observations

First Observation Sleep scores- It would seem that “ No coffee, no Booze” had no decerning influence on my Fitbit sleep score.  However there may be a hint of “longer sleep” by avoiding coffee and booze.  But then again that may be due to one day this last week I catnapped which in and of itself be due to no coffee. Either way I hopefully put to bed my “faithful and Obedient Companions never ending theory as to my poor sleep scores. I may concede that my resting heart rate may have come down a bit from lack of caffeine stimulus. But I have to add that based on my older Fitbit’s heart rate monitor I have had  other low periods during the last 12 months. (Example when I was at Stowe’s lower altitude, I often had weeks in the upper 50’s.)   In fact, my resting heart rate overall…according to Fitbit has tracked mine as “very good to excellent” for a guy my age overall, dating back over 2 years.  A comfort perhaps in a time when cardiac status is a factor in Coronavirus impacts. Either way I consider my “experiment” to be a “success”. At least in the sense that I feel comfortable in taking up coffee again (well maybe not 1.5 pots per day) and in rejoining my Faithful and Obedient in our nightly cocktail hour (which was never in doubt and commences this evening!).

My second Observation is this- and is based on my “Faithful and Obedient Companions” “Observation” that I have been “more pleasant” to deal with these last 2 weeks. I don’t know but perhaps focusing on this project has made me “more mellow”. No matter I agree with her on that point and I sure will keep that in mind as I reach for that coffee pot every morning…at least for now!

Finally, a final request for my readers. Please feel  free to share with all of us any interesting “self-improvement” efforts you may have made while stuck in isolation with your significant other…or any other” interesting quarantine observations you may care to share!

Meanwhile stay safe!

With that I bid you all

Adieu

Were' Not Going to take it too long?

Ohnooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Oh, we're not gonna take it
No, we ain't gonna take it
Oh, we're not gonna take it anymore

We've got the right to choose it
There ain't no way we'll lose it
This is our life, this is our song

We'll fight the powers that be, just
Don't pick our destiny 'cause
You don't know us, you don't belong

Oh, we're not gonna take it
No, we ain't gonna take it
Oh, we're not gonna take it anymore

Oh, you're so condescending
Your gall is never ending
We don't want nothin', not a thing from you

Your life is trite and jaded
Boring and confiscated
If that's your best, your best won't do

Whoa, oh oh
Whoa, oh oh

We're right (yeah)
We're free (yeah)
We'll fight (yeah)
You'll see (yeah)

Whoa, whoa, we're not gonna take it
No, we ain't gonna take it
Oh, we're not gonna take it anymore

We're not gonna take it
No, we ain't gonna take it
Oh, we're not gonna take it anymore

No way

Whoa, oh oh
Whoa, oh oh

We're right (yeah)
We're free (yeah)
We'll fight (yeah)
You'll see (yeah)

We're not gonna take it
No, we ain't gonna take it
We're not gonna take it anymore

We're not gonna take it (no)
No, we ain't gonna take it
we're not gonna take it anymore

Just you try and make us

We're not gonna take it
(Come on!)
No, we ain't gonna take it
(You're all worthless and weak)
We're not gonna take it anymore
(Now drop and give me twenty)

We're not gonna take it
(A pledge pin)
No, we ain't gonna take it
(On your uniform)
We're not gonna take it anymore

Twisted Sister

OK readers!

 I include a link to Twisted Sisters Video to open this blog post as it depicts (fairly well I think) of how a kid and his family locked up in “Stay at home” quarantine may be feeling right now.  Let me know if I am crazy!

This past week has been tough, particularly for those on the east coast in general and the New York area especially.  The “Good News” I guess (if you can call it that) is that this area seems to have “peaked” (we think!) in terms of initial wave of cases and deaths from this deadly infection.  If so great but I am no expert and the experts optimism on that front sounds hardly promising on any quick recovery and return to normal.  The descriptions of “normal” I hear are frankly frightening.  Meanwhile on the economic front news that 22 million people have been thrown out of work is out today, and I doubt that is the end.  That number boggles the mind.  Given the “known” deaths from this virus stands this am at about 34,000 and counting.  There will unfortunately be many more. 

A back of the napkin calculation of the number of jobs ended (yes maybe “temporarily”) yields a ratio of 647 lost jobs for each death so far.  I guess we might never know how many lives will be saved by these job losses but early estimates of 200,000 deaths were thrown around.  Assuming that in the end we end up with 75,000 deaths maybe we will someday say we saved 125,000 lives which if nobody else loses a job (right), means  hypothetically each saved life cost us  "only" 176 jobs.

But how about this for perspective:

One company, Best Buy, this week alone laid off 51,000 employees.  13,000 more that the deaths we have head nationwide so far.  The ripple effects are also hitting our Public Sector.  The City of Boulder laid off 751 employees this week.  Colorado has had 357 deaths so far so just with the one  City of Boulder you have 2 jobs lost for every death in Colorado.  Why? because of low Sales, hotel and restaurant taxes.  It’s tough to “reopen” restaurants if everyone must wear a mask.

Or how about this tiny perspective:

  I am on the Board of our local Lions Foundation.  We had a “zoom” meting this morning.  Every year we raise about $150,000 to support local “Non-Profits” like home health, hospice, kids rodeo programs, the local Family Shelter, etc. In all about 15 different programs.  We also give scholarships to High School Students.  This is a pretty big sum for a county with 14,000 residents. This year our hope is to maybe raise $25,000 if some social distance restrictions are lifted by the end of June.  Most will go to the scholarship program…since kids already applied.  The 100,000 for local non-profits, well if we are lucky (we have a hopeful budget now) maybe 10,000 will be available. Now the impact of Corona Virus here in our county has been a non-event, just 4 cases of the virus so far, and no deaths. Despite that encouraging stat because of this pandemic’s economic effect, our local hospice Non-profit will now l likely receive $0 from us versus say $5,000.   Multiply that by hundreds of Lions clubs around the country.  Not sure how that is in any “model”.

Observation:  The economic fabric of our country is teetering and so far the solutions offered by the “experts” do not sound promising. I sense that in a few places signs of “discontent” are already popping up. I fear that we are on a path that many of our fellow citizens will soon find impossible to support. Personally, I believe we need to find solutions that offer hope in the next 30 days or support for continued draconian preventive health measures will rapidly evaporate.  Everybody may have a different sense of the right cost of "per life saved" but for all their will be a limit (I assume).  I believe where one stands on his will cross ideological divides and it may create some interesting political realignment that cuts both ways. In any event signs that both red and blue state leaders realize this is a reality are appearing and that gives me a bit of hope.  It is hard not to realize that Twisted Sister has a legitimate message.

This blog post was intentionally brief, an I let Twisted Sister do most of my "singing" presentation. 

But a  few closing thoughts.

Nobody can predict the future, (well except of course yours truly).  Some good can also come from this.  Certainly, many have benefited from spending time away from work (although I wonder how much domestic violence has occurred). It certainly has been a time for reflection and introspection.  Perhaps we will gather a new sense of what is truly important, family and friends, and faith, and a sense we are all in his boat together.

So regardless of one’s politics, I hope many will get a new feeling that no side of the aisle, nor no “expert” has all the correct answers, we need to listen, reflect and speak, all with an open mind, and heart.  Even if it goes nowhere like Twisted Sister you can blow off  some energy!  I hope you all feel free to do so!

With that I bid you

Adieu 

PS I have no specific "cost per life" number in mind but you can likely tell by my math you might sense I think we are approaching it!

Livin on a Prayer

Once upon a time not so long ago

Tommy used to work on the docks, union's been on strike
He's down on his luck, it's tough, so tough
Gina works the diner all day working for her man
She brings home her pay, for love, for love

She says, we've got to hold on to what we've got
It doesn't make a difference if we make it or not
We've got each other and that's a lot for love
We'll give it a shot

Woah, we're half way there
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Take my hand, we'll make it I swear
Woah, livin' on a prayer

Tommy's got his six-string in hock
Now he's holding in what he used to make it talk
So tough, it's tough
Gina dreams of running away
When she cries in the night, Tommy whispers
Baby, it's okay, someday

We've got to hold on to what we've got
It doesn't make a difference if we make it or not
We've got each other and that's a lot for love
We'll give it a shot

Woah, we're half way there
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Take my hand, we'll make it I swear
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Livin' on a prayer

Oh, we've got to hold on, ready or not
You live for the fight when it's all that you've got
Woah, we're half way there
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Take my hand, we'll make it I swear
Woah, livin' on a prayer

Woah, we're half way there
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Take my hand, we'll make it I swear
Woah, livin' on a prayer

Woah, we're half way there
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Take my hand, we'll make it I swear
Woah, livin' on a prayer

Songwriters: Jon Bon Jovi / Desmond Child / Richard S. Sambora

Today’s blog will be a continuation of “Coronavirus” with an eye at simply exploring some of the State by State numbers in an effort to start thinking of  changes to “normal” (whatever that looks like) Post Pandemic.

First some numbers which are available to all at this website

 Worldometers.info./coronavirus/country/US/

This Chart was copied and put into excel so I could sort.  This sort is based on the “red” numbers which represent “deaths’ by state per 1,000,000 in population.  It is sorted highest to lowest.

I have highlighted states of interest in yellow for some questions and speculation.  Those are below this chart. Data was “pulled” a couple of days ago-April 8^th.

USA State                                          	Total Cases   	New Cases   	Total Deaths   	New Deaths   	Active Cases   	Tot Cases/ 1M pop         	Deaths/ 1M pop   	Total Tests      	Tests/ 1M pop   
New York	151,171	+8,787	6,268	+779	128,888	7,706	319	365,153	18,613
New Jersey	47,437	+3,021	1,504	+272	45,841	5,341	169	100,326	11,296
Louisiana	17,030	+746	652	+70	16,328	3,652	140	81,406	17,456
Michigan	20,346	+1,376	959	+114	19,318	2,043	96	51,708	5,193
Connecticut	8,781	+1,000	335	+58	8,396	2,452	94	31,700	8,851
Massachusetts	16,790	+1,588	433	+77	16,347	2,458	63	87,511	12,812
Washington	9,342	+660	431	+28	7,997	1,281	59	92,073	12,623
District Of Columbia	1,440	+229	27	+3	1,052	2,104	39	8,283	12,101
Vermont	605	+30	23		582	968	37	7,749	12,399
Illinois	15,078	+1,529	462	+82	14,566	1,176	36	75,066	5,855
Georgia	10,204	+1,048	370	+22	9,803	991	36	38,787	3,767
Colorado	5,655	+226	193	+14	5,422	1,022	35	29,199	5,279
Rhode Island	1,450	+221	35	+5	1,405	1,372	33	12,132	11,482
Indiana	5,943	+436	203	+30	5,726	895	31	30,869	4,651
Pennsylvania	16,743	+1,798	314	+64	16,295	1,309	25	98,538	7,704
Nevada	2,318	+231	71	+13	2,211	793	24	22,865	7,823
Mississippi	2,003	+88	67	+8	1,936	670	22	20,635	6,904
Maryland	5,529	+1,158	124	+21	5,117	921	21	38,462	6,407
Oklahoma	1,524	+52	79	+12	923	389	20	13,345	3,406
Delaware	1,116	+188	19	+3	938	1,175	20	8,744	9,209
Wisconsin	2,756	+178	103	+11	2,588	477	18	32,871	5,689
Ohio	5,148	+366	193	+26	4,955	442	17	53,341	4,582
Florida	15,698	+951	323	+27	15,275	762	16	144,570	7,019
Kentucky	1,346	+197	73	+8	967	303	16	21,620	4,869
Missouri	3,431	+394	85	+15	3,277	563	14	34,110	5,601
Alabama	2,499	+302	67	+3	2,412	514	14	18,982	3,902
California	18,830	+1,370	498	+64	17,392	481	13	144,264	3,685
South Carolina	2,552	+135	63	+12	2,489	515	13	24,634	4,971
Kansas	1,046	+134	38	+7	1,008	360	13	10,183	3,501
New Hampshire	788	+41	18	+5	543	586	13	9,177	6,830
Tennessee	4,362	+224	79	+7	3,656	656	12	56,618	8,513
Arizona	2,726	+151	80	+7	2,626	392	12	34,564	4,976
Idaho	1,232	+22	18	+3	1,214	730	11	11,898	7,049
Maine	537	+18	14	+2	336	403	11	6,625	4,971
Virginia	3,645	+312	75	+12	3,568	433	9	30,645	3,642
Oregon	1,239	+58	38	+5	1,201	304	9	24,564	6,018
Iowa	1,145	+96	27	+1	1,029	366	9	13,966	4,458
Alaska	226	+13	7	+1	187	306	9	7,068	9,571
New Mexico	865	+71	16	+3	678	413	8	23,807	11,378
Texas	10,065	+1,126	195	+28	9,100	361	7	96,258	3,452
Minnesota	1,154	+85	39	+5	483	209	7	30,753	5,564
South Dakota	393	+73	6		241	455	7	6,748	7,808
Puerto Rico	620	+47	24	+1	592	183	7	6,052	1,787
North Carolina	3,562	+241	63	+9	3,413	351	6	42,987	4,233
Arkansas	1,077	+131	18		822	360	6	14,909	4,985
Nebraska	519	+41	12	+2	507	272	6	7,978	4,188
Montana	332	+13	6		191	319	6	7,398	7,102
North Dakota	251	+14	4		149	334	5	8,607	11,442
Utah	1,846	+108	13		1,807	606	4	36,116	11,859
Hawaii	435	+25	5		317	306	4	15,149	10,653
West Virginia	483	+71	4		479	264	2	12,859	7,030
Wyoming	230	+9			136	395		4,064	6,985
Guam	121		4		90			605
Northern Mariana Islands	11	+3	2		9			45
United States Virgin Islands	43		1		8			266
US Military	3,160	+503	8	+1	2,928			0
Wuhan Repatriated	3				3			3
Diamond Princess Cruise	46				46			46
US Total	434,927	+31,935	14,788	+1,940	395,813	1,314	45	2,208,901	6,673

Before laying some thoughts out I confess that this novel is not yet over.  Who knows where Pennsylvania (Philly) and Colorado for example end up.  In Colorado they do not believe the National models which say we are peaked, their “local” models say late May or June.  I like that states us their own models but frankly who knows which will be closest.  Early news from my Philly friends sounds ominous.

First up, no surprise is NY, NJ are the two highest followed closely by Louisiana.   Speculation is that Louisiana and Mardi Gras were a social distance nightmare, NY and NJ  (and Southern Connecticut) with high density living coupled with subway’s Path and NJ transit are as well.   This leads me to some quick “Observations”/Thoughts:

1.   High Density, High Mass Transit might well be determined to be difficult to live with if we really wish to avoid Pandemics.  I remember many hot crowded NJ Transit and NY Subway rides.  I think many who can, particularly those who can work from home anyway, will decide to move out.  Winter Park anyone (our county 4 cases and no change in 3 weeks)?   China has managed high density living but only with brutal surveillance.  Stop and frisk for “COVID” passes anyone?  I see potentially huge changes in store for Boston, Philly, Baltimore and DC all Mass Transit driven.

2.   Now look at California (Newsome for Pres???).  I would love to know what goes on there.  I understand California has at least as many (if not more) flights to and from China than NY-NJ.  It has a similar mix of low, middle, and high, income populations.  Racial makeup may be more diverse than NY state. Including a large population of people with connections to China. They certainly have more homeless.  Were they just much better at their social distance orders and stay at home compliance?  I think more likely the High-Tech businesses around SF have more at home workers, and we may learn that their populations love of Auto’s and Freeways helped keep people isolated in their commutes .  Be interesting to know all the reasons but for sure we should learn something there.  (one big caution of course: the way this virus acts who knows.  Next week the numbers may be all wrong? )

3.   Likewise, that great State of Oregon has some incredible numbers so far.  I do not remember Portland as a Mass Transit city.

4.   Finally, how Bout them Cowboys, sitting right there next to Louisiana but seemingly doing very well.  If it was “Mardi Gras” then the rapidity with which a mass event like that spreads this virus does not bode well for mass gatherings.  Remember Austin cancelling that Festival…good move!  Funny though wonder what happened at Super Bowl a few weeks before?  Anyway if Texas remains "low" on impact (deaths anyway) wide open spaces anyone?

There are many other thoughts on this, and I am sure the “experts” are pondering them all.  I just do not see how anyone can contemplate an area like the NY Metro as currently “structured” coping with future scary new virus strains that can spread like wildfire with many having few symptoms.

As always, I look forward to any insights you may have.  Meanwhile have a Joyous Easter/ Passover.

With that I bid you adieu.