Liar Liar Pants On Fire
From Urban Dictionary:
"Liar Liar Pants On Fire is a phrase that children like to scream at each other whenever they think the other is lying. They also like to scream it at adults who tell them stories about fairies. It is an overall stupid thing to say, since if your pants actually caught on fire when you lied, more politicians would be dead."
One of my blog followers (Phil) last week talked about my "burying the lead". I agreed with Phil's comments and said so (and in my comment added it was intentional).
Two articles I came across this week (One on "Tennis" and One on Colorado Wildfires) piqued my interest because of the reporter's headline's -and because of Phil's comments on "The Lead". In both cases "Climate Change" (yes an old favorite) was "the Lead".
Whenever a reporter links specific event(s) to Climate Change I immediately get my "Haidt" up. I admit that I have a predisposition to suspect some deliberate misrepresentation or bias whenever climate change is named as the culprit in a headline. This in turn usually motivates me to do some personal research.
Let me start with the "Tennis" story, written for the NY Times by Kendra Pierre-Lewis. I looked up Kendra and, after a little research, I learned she has a Master of "Arts" in Climate Change (not in Climate "Science") and Sustainability from SIT School of Graduate Arts (not science) which is located in Bennington -Vermont (I could have guessed after seeing "sustainability" as her degree). Already I "smelled" bias.
Here is the "The Headline" and first few paragraph's in the Article:
Roger Federer Is Tough to Beat. Global
Warming Might Have Pulled an Upset.
By Kendra Pierre-Louis
Sept. 4, 2018
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Roger Federer, one of the world’s greatest tennis players, may have become an unwitting
spokesman for the effects of climate change on Monday at the U.S. Open.
Federer, who is ranked No. 2, seemed to struggle all night in the heat and humidity at Arthur
Ashe Stadium, losing in a fourth-round upset to John Millman, an Australian ranked 55th.
“It was hot,” Federer said. It “was just one of those nights where I guess I felt I couldn’t get air;
there was no circulation at all.”
This was the first time Federer, who won the U.S. Open five consecutive times from 2004 to 2008,
lost to a player outside the top 50 at the tournament.
To some, the comments by Federer, 37, may sound like sour grapes. But they also underscore a
growing problem: increasing nighttime temperatures.
OK so what about this idea that Climate Change affected Federer's competitive edge??
I decided to look up some "Labor Day" weekend temperatures in NYC in recent history.
(From NYC Weather Archive Labor Day Highlights). Yes the Underlines are mine).
- 2015 (Sept. 5-7) - Sunny and warm throughout with each day warmer than the next (highs of 83-87-92). Labor Day's high was the first in the 90s since 1983.
- 2016 (Sept. 3-5) - It was a rain-free weekend, with highs of 75° on Saturday, 80° on Sunday and 84° on Labor Day - which was the same high as 4th of July (and Memorial Day wasn't far behind, with a high of 82°). It was a nice surprise that the holiday weekend ended up being so nice since earlier forecasts predicted tropical storm Hermine would stall off the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday and Monday, but it moved further east than expected.
- 2017 (Sept. 2-4) - After a cool and mostly overcast Saturday and Sunday (which included 1.27" of rain on Saturday evening thru early Sunday AM), Labor Day turned out beautiful, with mostly clear skies and seasonable temperatures. All told, this was the coolest Labor Day weekend since 2004).
Makes me wonder where Roger was the last couple of years and what Kendra had to say about "trend" the last two years. In 2015 the temperature did hit 92 one day but is was the the first time Labor Day had a high in the 90's since 1983!
Maybe poor Roger is just getting "older: since his winning streak.
If you actually read her whole article she hedges quite a bit about some of the other reasons Roger might have lost. However, as with most Times Articles the "lead" buries the story. In fact in my opinion the headline and article is entirely BS News..
The second article was from my "local paper" the Denver Post.
COLORADO NEWS- COLORADO WILDFIRES
Driven by climate change, wildfires reshape U.S. West
By MATTHEW BROWN | The Associated Press
September 4, 2018 at 6:00 am
BILLINGS, Mont. — Wildfires in the U.S. have charred more than 10,000
square miles so far this year, an area larger than the state of Maryland,
with large fires still burning in every Western state including many that are
not fully contained.
Whether sparked by lightning or humans, Fire has long been a force
shaping the landscape of the U.S. West. Hot, dry winds can whip flames into firestorms that leave behind charred wastelands prone to erosion and mudslides. Other fires clear out
underbrush, open the forest floor to sunlight and stimulate growth.
Government agencies in recent decades effectively upended that cycle of
destruction and rebirth. Fire suppression policies allowed fuels to build up
in many Western forests.
Those influences are magnified as development creeps ever deeper into
forests and climate change brings hotter temperatures. Recent images of
subdivisions ablaze thrust the power and ecological role of wildfires into
the spotlight.
The article goes into all of these other factors which actually are in the first several paragraph's, but the headline of course is "Climate Change". In fact if you really read the entire piece it focuses as much or more on the topics of population growth and fire suppression. However, Mr. Brown's own article "History" on topics like the Keystone Pipeline and other "environmental issues of the day suggest to me he might have some "bias" in his headline. I did find much of his article, unlike Kendra's, largely informative. In fact I might not have noticed the article if the author had NOT made that the headline. Hmmm..interesting self analysis might be in order!
I never really thought about Wildfires until I moved west. This summer our own county had several major fires some not far from us, and I can tell you I have quickly gained some "concern" about forest fires. My Brother-in-law's son is a firefighter in Washington state and has been fighting large fires in Washington so I am also aware that millions in the west have been affected by at least the haze and smoke generated by some "Mega" fires this year.
After reading this article I decided to search some out some "historical context" of western fires.
A couple of interesting graphs from some publicly available places: (see my comments below)
Note: While, the NIFC states that “prior to 1983, sources of these figures are not known, or cannot be confirmed, and were not derived from the current situation reporting process. As a result the figures prior to 1983 should not be compared to later data” and there is a clear seam in the number of fires time series, the acreage burned is not so subject to reporting errors, is a smooth time series and is very consistent with the data from Oregon.
Now I realize that these graphs certainly do not tell the whole story. But here are a couple of my "Observations":
At one time in the west...before humans produced "climate change" and BEFORE fire suppression which essentially became big in the 60's when with increased population in places like Colorado, Washington, Oregon and California, fires burned HUGE parts of the west ....year after year after year. Now with increased human habitation, in places like Winter Park Colorado we all (yes even me) take note of fires. This massive population increase was not driven by "Human Induced Climate Change ", nor were firefighting strategies. The Oregon Graph also shows historically "drought and Fires". No kidding droughts impact fires, but that has always been true.
If I were an "uneducated" observer I might even say the increase in atmospheric CO2 helped reduce wildfire damage with this simple (but stupid graph):
My point Mr Brown's lead also buried the primary reasons for this years terrible cycle of fires in Colorado and elsewhere. If one digs into his article it was actually not at all simply BS news. In fact the fire suppression issue coupled with increased population in the Inter-Mountain West creates some real problems-as evidenced by these graphs and as clearly spelled out in his article.. This has been aggravated by drought. Now given the climate history of the "hot dry west" I am skeptical about his linkage to climate change as caused by CO2, but I am willing to be open to that possibility. But in reality Climate Change even if "real" is not the primary driver of this, at all.
In my past comments on "climate change" I outlined my skepticism on it's dangers to mankind. If you look at "polls" Americans place climate change very low as a "big issue".
OK so what's my point?
Maybe if the news stopped headlining mindless drivel (and outright BS) about climate change and Tennis Matches and treated the topic with some respect for readers by presenting realistic facts, costs versus benefits, and realistic impacts of carbon usage they may actually educate some of us dumb deniers" and skeptics. Instead they try to generate "panic" whenever snow falls (or doesn't) or whenever we have a warm spell. This drivel has become so mind numbing to the public that ALL OF is starts to appear as BS to most reasonable people.
With that I bid you
Adieu
Some after writing thoughts.....Speaking of US Open Tennis
1. Tennis is not just about Climate Change is it? How about that Serena controversy-it's a sexism issue!!
2. So Speaking of "sexism" Nike a few months back was accused of same , so now they have hired Kaepernick to help their progressive shoe buyers feel like they are part of the "cause".
Even Tennis Tournaments and Tennis Shoes have become full of political statements now!!
What a world!
